673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions

J.G. Burns; V. Eory; R. Mrode; G. Simm; E. Wall

doi:10.3920/978-90-8686-940-4_673

673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions

J.G. Burns, V. Eory, R. Mrode, G. Simm, E. Wall

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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Abstract

Climate change will have direct effects on performance of livestock. Simulations that mimic livestock systems risk misrepresenting performance if these effects are not accounted for. Here, the technical, economic and environmental performance of a Scottish dairy herd under genetic selection (for 7-correlated traits) was investigated using an original simulation model. There were two scenarios: in the control scenario, the technical performance of individuals was not affected by daily weather; in the treatment scenario, technical performance was dynamic to daily weather conditions. Herds were simulated for 20-years. By the final year of the simulation, for herds in the treatment scenario relative to the control scenario, annual gains in gross margin were reduced by 2.1% and gains in greenhouse gas emissions intensity were reduced by 1.7%. Failure to account for weather effects in models that simulate herds into the future will likely cause over-estimation of technical, economic and environmental performance, even in temperate regions such as southwest Scotland.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production (WCGALP)
Subtitle of host publication	Technical and species orientated innovations in animal breeding, and contribution of genetics to solving societal challenges
Publisher	Wageningen Academic Publishers
Pages	2777-2781
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-940-4_673
Publication status	First published - 9 Feb 2023

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.3920/978-90-8686-940-4_673Licence: CC BY

978-90-8686-940-4_673Final published version, 262 KBLicence: CC BY

RESAS 22-27: SRUC-b2-7 Data Driven Techniques To Develop New Phenotypes For Dairy Cows And Chains.
Wall, E. (PI), Pritchard, T. (CoI) & Archibald, I. (CoI)
Scottish Government: Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services
1/04/22 → 31/03/27
Project: Research

Cite this

Burns, J. G., Eory, V., Mrode, R., Simm, G., & Wall, E. (2023). 673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions. In Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production (WCGALP): Technical and species orientated innovations in animal breeding, and contribution of genetics to solving societal challenges (pp. 2777-2781). Wageningen Academic Publishers. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-940-4_673

Burns, J.G. ; Eory, V. ; Mrode, R. et al. / 673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions. Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production (WCGALP): Technical and species orientated innovations in animal breeding, and contribution of genetics to solving societal challenges. Wageningen Academic Publishers, 2023. pp. 2777-2781

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abstract = "Climate change will have direct effects on performance of livestock. Simulations that mimic livestock systems risk misrepresenting performance if these effects are not accounted for. Here, the technical, economic and environmental performance of a Scottish dairy herd under genetic selection (for 7-correlated traits) was investigated using an original simulation model. There were two scenarios: in the control scenario, the technical performance of individuals was not affected by daily weather; in the treatment scenario, technical performance was dynamic to daily weather conditions. Herds were simulated for 20-years. By the final year of the simulation, for herds in the treatment scenario relative to the control scenario, annual gains in gross margin were reduced by 2.1% and gains in greenhouse gas emissions intensity were reduced by 1.7%. Failure to account for weather effects in models that simulate herds into the future will likely cause over-estimation of technical, economic and environmental performance, even in temperate regions such as southwest Scotland.",

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Burns, JG, Eory, V , Mrode, R, Simm, G & Wall, E 2023, 673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions. in Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production (WCGALP): Technical and species orientated innovations in animal breeding, and contribution of genetics to solving societal challenges. Wageningen Academic Publishers, pp. 2777-2781. https://doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-940-4_673

673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions. / Burns, J.G.; Eory, V.; Mrode, R. et al.
Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production (WCGALP): Technical and species orientated innovations in animal breeding, and contribution of genetics to solving societal challenges. Wageningen Academic Publishers, 2023. p. 2777-2781.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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Burns JG, Eory V , Mrode R, Simm G, Wall E. 673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions. In Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production (WCGALP): Technical and species orientated innovations in animal breeding, and contribution of genetics to solving societal challenges. Wageningen Academic Publishers. 2023. p. 2777-2781 Epub 2023 Feb 9. doi: 10.3920/978-90-8686-940-4_673

673. Simulating technical, economic and environmental performance of a dairy herd under selection in future climate conditions

Abstract

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Projects

RESAS 22-27: SRUC-b2-7 Data Driven Techniques To Develop New Phenotypes For Dairy Cows And Chains.

Cite this