Assessing Scotland’s self-sufficiency of major food commodities

Background: Analysis of food self-sufficiency at the regional level helps to better understand its dependency on, and vulnerability to, the food system. Moreover, achieving food self-sufficiency has gained prominence in the present policy agenda to increase resilience to adverse events and lower food resource footprint. Using a novel method, we estimated the food balance sheets of Scotland, the second-largest region in the United Kingdom, and assessed the self-sufficiency of major food commodities for the first time. Methods: Data from 2003 to 2019 were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s family food statistics. Food import and export data are not readily available for Scotland. Therefore, we developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the net trade values of each commodity. We also assessed the contribution of domestic production toward nutrient security. Results: According to our estimates, Scotland is a net exporter of beef, exporting an average of 51.3 thousand tons per year. It is also a net exporter of cereal (wheat, barley, oats) and potatoes, although this was not always the case between 2003 and 2019. Scotland has a strong level of self-sufficiency in cereals, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs. However, there is room for improvement in achieving self-sufficiency in poultry and pork, where the self-sufficiency ratio is relatively low. Our analysis of nutrient security indicates that wheat and dairy sourced from Scotland play crucial roles in the food supply chain, markedly influencing total energy, dietary protein, and primary dietary fat sources. Conclusions: Our assessment can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in Scotland's agricultural and food policy. It offers insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic production and promote a resilient and sustainable food system. Estimated self-sufficiency ratios provide a more accurate assessment of the extent of food localization in Scotland. The method we developed in this study has the potential to be a valuable tool for future research studies, allowing for the estimation of regional-level food self-sufficiency even when trade data and food balance sheets are unavailable.