Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

PR Bessell, KR Searle, HK Auty, IG Handel, BV Purse, BM de C Bronsvoort

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    12 Citations (Scopus)
    9 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number38940
    JournalScientific Reports
    Volume6
    Early online date13 Dec 2016
    DOIs
    Publication statusFirst published - 13 Dec 2016

    Bibliographical note

    1030832

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this