Abstract
Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive
and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their
intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate.
Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted
under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity
frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden largescale
outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These
outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare,
yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change
will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess
how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a processbased
approach, we determine how changes in temperaturesensitive
elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to
explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock
helminth infections. We show that changes in temperatesensitive
parameters can result in nonlinear responses in
outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct ‘tipping-points’ in
nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic
models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates
that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of
a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock
systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic
conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic
changes in parasite burdens.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Article number | 140296 |
Journal | Royal Society Open Science |
Volume | 2 |
Issue number | 5 |
Early online date | 1 May 2015 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | First published - 1 May 2015 |
Bibliographical note
1024936Keywords
- Climate change
- Helminth
- Livestock
- Nematode
- Parasite
- Temperature