Economic valuation of ecosystem services trade-offs of tilapia cage culture farm and native capture fisheries in Lake Maninjau, Indonesia

Research on the effects of cage aquaculture on native fish populations has revealed its negative and positive impacts. However, a separate analysis of its ecological and economic effects creates incomplete information for the decision-makers. Moreover, the inadequacy of time series data has caused challenges to knowledge-based decision-making in establishing new cage aquaculture sites, especially in low-middle income countries. We use the ecosystem services (ES) framework to analyse the synergy and trade-off of cage aquaculture to a native fish species, Gobiopterus sp. in Lake Maninjau, Indonesia, as an effort to provide comprehensive information to support local decision-makers and to fill the information gap. We engaged some modelling techniques such as the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) validated with field survey data, Bayesian Networks (BN), and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in this research. The results show that cage aquaculture provides habitat services for the species and temporary forgone fish production due to the accelerated sulfur upwelling. The economic value of habitat provision reached 74,500 IDR per year per cage or 1,128 million IDR per year in 2017. Further, the average value of the forgone benefit of fish production in the current cage aquaculture business extends from more than 550 million IDR per year in the dry season to almost 600 million IDR per year in the rainy season. The results indicate that the negative impacts of cage aquaculture on the native fish population outweigh its benefit. The recommendation for management actions includes applying alternative aquaculture techniques and other technological interventions.