TY - JOUR
T1 - Economic value of information from an alert system on physiological imbalance in fresh cows
AU - Ettema, Jehan
AU - Krogh, Mogens
AU - Østergaard, Søren
AU - Crowe, Mark
AU - McLoughlin, Niamh
AU - Fahey, Alan
AU - Carter, Fiona
AU - Matthews, Elizabeth
AU - Santoro, Andreia
AU - Byrne, Colin
AU - Rudd, Pauline
AU - O'Flaherty, Roisin
AU - Hallinan, Sinead
AU - Wathes, Claire
AU - Salavati, Mazdak
AU - Cheng, Zhangrui
AU - Fouladi, Ali
AU - Pollott, Geoff
AU - Werling, Dirk
AU - Bernardo, Beatriz Sanz
AU - Ferris, Conrad
AU - Wylie, Alistair
AU - Bell, Matt
AU - Vaneetvelde, Mieke
AU - Hermans, Kristof
AU - Hostens, Miel
AU - Opsomer, Geert
AU - Moerman, Sander
AU - De Koster, Jenne
AU - Bogaert, Hannes
AU - Vandepitte, Jan
AU - Vandevelde, Leila
AU - Vanranst, Bonny
AU - Ingvartsen, Klaus
AU - Sorensen, Martin Tang
AU - Hoglund, Johanna
AU - Dahl, Susanne
AU - Ostergaard, Soren
AU - Rothmann, Janne
AU - Krogh, Mogens
AU - Meyer, Else
AU - Foldager, Leslie
AU - Gaillard, Charlotte
AU - Ettema, Jehan
AU - Rousing, Tine
AU - Larsen, Torben
AU - de Oliveira, Victor H.Silva
AU - Marchitelli, Cinzia
AU - Signorelli, Federica
AU - Napolitano, Francesco
AU - Moioli, Bianca
AU - Crisà, Alessandra
AU - Buttazzoni, Luca
AU - McClure, Jennifer
AU - Matthews, Daragh
AU - Kearney, Francis
AU - Cromie, Andrew
AU - McClure, Matt
AU - Zhang, Shujun
AU - Chen, Xing
AU - Chen, Huanchun
AU - Zhao, Junlong
AU - Yang, Liguo
AU - Hua, Guohua
AU - Tan, Chen
AU - Wang, Guiqiang
AU - Bonneau, Michel
AU - Sciarretta, Marlène
AU - Pearn, Armin
AU - Evertson, Arnold
AU - Kosten, Linda
AU - Fogh, Anders
AU - Andersen, Thomas
AU - Lucy, Matthew
AU - Elsik, Chris
AU - Conant, Gavin
AU - Taylor, Jerry
AU - Triant, Deborah
AU - Gengler, Nicolas
AU - Georges, Michel
AU - GplusE Consortium
N1 - Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/8
Y1 - 2020/8
N2 - Physiological imbalance is an abnormal physiological condition that cannot be directly observed but is assumed to precede subclinical and clinical diseases in the beginning of lactation. Alert systems to detect the physiological imbalance in a cow using Fourier transform mid-infrared spectroscopy in milk have been developed. The objective of this study was to estimate the value of information provided from such system with different indicator accuracies, herd prevalence and prices. A decision tree was created to model the probabilities of detection and associated costs of test outcome, intervention and occurrence of disease. We assumed that the negative effect of physiological imbalance was the development of subclinical ketosis and that this negative effect was prevented by drenching the cows with propylene glycol for 5 days. We simulated the economic impact of subclinical ketosis mediated through physiological imbalance to be $194 per case. The results showed that if the alert system was highly accurate (Se = 0.99/Sp = 0.99), and the prevalence of physiological imbalance was 30 %, the value of information provided from the system is $19 per cow-year. In case the prevalence is 5 % or 50 %, the value of information is $3 and $13, respectively. These estimates for the value do not cover the capital costs and operational costs of the alert system. This study furthermore clearly demonstrated that in order to estimate the value of information correctly, it is important to consider that drenching all cows and not drenching any of the cows are the two relevant alternative options in the absence of the alert system. In conclusion, the decision tree and sensitivity analysis developed in this study show that final economic results are highly variable to the prevalence of physiological imbalance and highest at an intermediate prevalence. Other relevant factors are the costs associated with drenching and the cost associated with treating false positives and not treating false negatives. In addition, this study highlights the benefits of simulation to pinpoint where additional information is needed to further quantify the economic value and required accuracy of an indication-based intervention system.
AB - Physiological imbalance is an abnormal physiological condition that cannot be directly observed but is assumed to precede subclinical and clinical diseases in the beginning of lactation. Alert systems to detect the physiological imbalance in a cow using Fourier transform mid-infrared spectroscopy in milk have been developed. The objective of this study was to estimate the value of information provided from such system with different indicator accuracies, herd prevalence and prices. A decision tree was created to model the probabilities of detection and associated costs of test outcome, intervention and occurrence of disease. We assumed that the negative effect of physiological imbalance was the development of subclinical ketosis and that this negative effect was prevented by drenching the cows with propylene glycol for 5 days. We simulated the economic impact of subclinical ketosis mediated through physiological imbalance to be $194 per case. The results showed that if the alert system was highly accurate (Se = 0.99/Sp = 0.99), and the prevalence of physiological imbalance was 30 %, the value of information provided from the system is $19 per cow-year. In case the prevalence is 5 % or 50 %, the value of information is $3 and $13, respectively. These estimates for the value do not cover the capital costs and operational costs of the alert system. This study furthermore clearly demonstrated that in order to estimate the value of information correctly, it is important to consider that drenching all cows and not drenching any of the cows are the two relevant alternative options in the absence of the alert system. In conclusion, the decision tree and sensitivity analysis developed in this study show that final economic results are highly variable to the prevalence of physiological imbalance and highest at an intermediate prevalence. Other relevant factors are the costs associated with drenching and the cost associated with treating false positives and not treating false negatives. In addition, this study highlights the benefits of simulation to pinpoint where additional information is needed to further quantify the economic value and required accuracy of an indication-based intervention system.
KW - Dairy herd
KW - Economics
KW - Intervention
KW - Physiological imbalance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085997720&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.105039
DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.105039
M3 - Article
C2 - 32526548
AN - SCOPUS:85085997720
SN - 0167-5877
VL - 181
JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
M1 - 105039
ER -