Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland

PR Bessell, KR Searle, HK Auty, IG Handel, BV Purse, BM deC Bronsvoort

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

During 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV) presented as a novel disease of cattle and sheep that had apparently spread through northern Europe over a relatively short period of time, but has yet to infect Scotland. This paper describes the development of a model of SBV spread applied to Scotland in the event of an incursion. This model shows that SBV spread is very sensitive to the temperature, with relatively little spread and few reproductive losses predicted in years with average temperatures but extensive spread (.1 million animals infected) and substantial reproductive losses in the hottest years. These results indicate that it is possible for SBV to spread in Scotland, however spread is limited by climatic conditions and the timing of introduction. Further results show that the transmission kernel shape and extrinsic incubation period parameter have a non-linear effect on disease transmission, so a greater understanding of the SBV transmission parameters is required.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1178
JournalScientific Reports
Volume3
DOIs
Publication statusPrint publication - 31 Jan 2013

Fingerprint

vector-borne diseases
Scotland
sheep diseases
cattle diseases
virus transmission
Northern European region
disease transmission
temperature
Schmallenberg virus
seeds
animals

Bibliographical note

1023410

Keywords

  • Computer modelling
  • Entomology
  • Stochastic modelling
  • Viral epidemiology

Cite this

Bessell, PR., Searle, KR., Auty, HK., Handel, IG., Purse, BV., & deC Bronsvoort, BM. (2013). Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland. Scientific Reports, 3, [1178]. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep01178
Bessell, PR ; Searle, KR ; Auty, HK ; Handel, IG ; Purse, BV ; deC Bronsvoort, BM. / Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland. In: Scientific Reports. 2013 ; Vol. 3.
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Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland. / Bessell, PR; Searle, KR; Auty, HK; Handel, IG; Purse, BV; deC Bronsvoort, BM.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 3, 1178, 31.01.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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