Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system

Derek T Robinson*, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C Michael Barton, Daniel G Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas AM Pugh, Sam S Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, Peter H Verburg

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human-natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human-natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human-natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)895-914
Number of pages20
JournalEarth System Dynamics
Volume9
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPrint publication - 26 Jun 2018

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modeling
conceptual framework
land
soil fertility
nonlinearity
sensitivity analysis
economic development
mitigation
trajectory
communication
weather
software
climate
resource
cost

Cite this

Robinson, D. T., Di Vittorio, A., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Barton, C. M., Brown, D. G., ... Verburg, P. H. (2018). Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), 895-914. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018
Robinson, Derek T ; Di Vittorio, Alan ; Alexander, Peter ; Arneth, Almut ; Barton, C Michael ; Brown, Daniel G ; Kettner, Albert ; Lemmen, Carsten ; O'Neill, Brian C ; Janssen, Marco ; Pugh, Thomas AM ; Rabin, Sam S ; Rounsevell, Mark ; Syvitski, James P ; Ullah, Isaac ; Verburg, Peter H. / Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. In: Earth System Dynamics. 2018 ; Vol. 9, No. 2. pp. 895-914.
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Robinson, DT, Di Vittorio, A, Alexander, P, Arneth, A, Barton, CM, Brown, DG, Kettner, A, Lemmen, C, O'Neill, BC, Janssen, M, Pugh, TAM, Rabin, SS, Rounsevell, M, Syvitski, JP, Ullah, I & Verburg, PH 2018, 'Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system', Earth System Dynamics, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 895-914. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018

Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. / Robinson, Derek T; Di Vittorio, Alan; Alexander, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Barton, C Michael; Brown, Daniel G; Kettner, Albert; Lemmen, Carsten; O'Neill, Brian C; Janssen, Marco; Pugh, Thomas AM; Rabin, Sam S; Rounsevell, Mark; Syvitski, James P; Ullah, Isaac; Verburg, Peter H.

In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, No. 2, 26.06.2018, p. 895-914.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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T1 - Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system

AU - Robinson, Derek T

AU - Di Vittorio, Alan

AU - Alexander, Peter

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Barton, C Michael

AU - Brown, Daniel G

AU - Kettner, Albert

AU - Lemmen, Carsten

AU - O'Neill, Brian C

AU - Janssen, Marco

AU - Pugh, Thomas AM

AU - Rabin, Sam S

AU - Rounsevell, Mark

AU - Syvitski, James P

AU - Ullah, Isaac

AU - Verburg, Peter H

PY - 2018/6/26

Y1 - 2018/6/26

N2 - The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human-natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human-natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human-natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.

AB - The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human-natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human-natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human-natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.

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Robinson DT, Di Vittorio A, Alexander P, Arneth A, Barton CM, Brown DG et al. Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Earth System Dynamics. 2018 Jun 26;9(2):895-914. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018