The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants

A Benefit-Cost Analysis

Bryony A Jones, Karl M Rich, Jeffrey C Mariner, John Anderson, Martyn Jeggo, Sam Thevasagayam, Yi Cai, Andrew R Peters, Peter Roeder

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Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0149982
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume11
Issue number2
Early online date22 Feb 2016
DOIs
Publication statusFirst published - 22 Feb 2016

Fingerprint

Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants
peste des petits ruminants
Cost benefit analysis
cost benefit analysis
economic impact
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Economics
Rinderpest
Costs
Mortality
rinderpest
livelihood
Costs and Cost Analysis
Developing countries
Agriculture
Sensitivity analysis
Cost Control
Ruminants
small ruminants
Livestock

Keywords

  • Animals
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Disease Eradication/economics
  • Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
  • Goat Diseases/economics
  • Goats
  • Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants/economics
  • Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus/physiology
  • Sheep
  • Sheep Diseases/economics

Cite this

Jones, B. A., Rich, K. M., Mariner, J. C., Anderson, J., Jeggo, M., Thevasagayam, S., ... Roeder, P. (2016). The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis. PLoS ONE, 11(2), [e0149982]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149982
Jones, Bryony A ; Rich, Karl M ; Mariner, Jeffrey C ; Anderson, John ; Jeggo, Martyn ; Thevasagayam, Sam ; Cai, Yi ; Peters, Andrew R ; Roeder, Peter. / The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants : A Benefit-Cost Analysis. In: PLoS ONE. 2016 ; Vol. 11, No. 2.
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abstract = "Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199{\%}. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.",
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Jones, BA, Rich, KM, Mariner, JC, Anderson, J, Jeggo, M, Thevasagayam, S, Cai, Y, Peters, AR & Roeder, P 2016, 'The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis', PLoS ONE, vol. 11, no. 2, e0149982. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149982

The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants : A Benefit-Cost Analysis. / Jones, Bryony A; Rich, Karl M; Mariner, Jeffrey C; Anderson, John; Jeggo, Martyn; Thevasagayam, Sam; Cai, Yi; Peters, Andrew R; Roeder, Peter.

In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 11, No. 2, e0149982, 22.02.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants

T2 - A Benefit-Cost Analysis

AU - Jones, Bryony A

AU - Rich, Karl M

AU - Mariner, Jeffrey C

AU - Anderson, John

AU - Jeggo, Martyn

AU - Thevasagayam, Sam

AU - Cai, Yi

AU - Peters, Andrew R

AU - Roeder, Peter

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N2 - Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

AB - Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

KW - Animals

KW - Cost-Benefit Analysis

KW - Disease Eradication/economics

KW - Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay

KW - Goat Diseases/economics

KW - Goats

KW - Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants/economics

KW - Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus/physiology

KW - Sheep

KW - Sheep Diseases/economics

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VL - 11

JO - PLoS ONE

JF - PLoS ONE

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Jones BA, Rich KM, Mariner JC, Anderson J, Jeggo M, Thevasagayam S et al. The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis. PLoS ONE. 2016 Feb 22;11(2). e0149982. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149982