The evidential basis of decision making in plant disease management

G Hughes

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

    13 Citations (Scopus)
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    The evidential basis for disease management decision making is provided by data relating to risk factors. The decision process involves an assessment of the evidence leading to taking (or refraining from) action on the basis of a prediction. The primary objective of the decision process is to identify—at the time the decision is made—the control action that provides the best predicted end-of-season outcome, calculated in terms of revenue or another appropriate metric. Data relating to disease risk factors may take a variety of forms (e.g., continuous, discrete, categorical) on measurement scales in a variety of units. Log10-likelihood ratios provide a principled basis for the accumulation of evidence based on such data and allow predictions to be made via Bayesian updating of prior probabilities.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)41 - 59
    Number of pages19
    JournalAnnual Review of Phytopathology
    Publication statusFirst published - 10 May 2017

    Bibliographical note



    • Bayes' rule
    • Likelihood ratios
    • Risk
    • Risk factors
    • Weight of evidence


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