To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Richard P Kipling, CFE Topp, André Bannink, Dave J Bartley, Isabel Blanco-Penedo, R Cortignani, Agustin del Prado, G Dono, Philippe Faverdin, I Graux, NJ Hutchings, Ludwig Lauwers, Şeyda Özkan Gulzari, P Reidsma, Susanne Rolinski, M Ruiz-Ramos, Daniel L Sandars, Renáta Sándor, M Schönhart, Giovanna SeddaiuJantine Van Middelkoop, S Shrestha, Isabelle Weindl, V Eory

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Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and
Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104492
Number of pages21
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume120
Early online date29 Jul 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPrint publication - Oct 2019

Keywords

  • Adaptation
  • Agricultural modelling
  • Climate change
  • Research challenges

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    Veronika Eory

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    Kairsty Topp

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    Cite this

    Kipling, R. P., Topp, CFE., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., Cortignani, R., del Prado, A., Dono, G., Faverdin, P., Graux, I., Hutchings, NJ., Lauwers, L., Gulzari, Ş. Ö., Reidsma, P., Rolinski, S., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Sandars, D. L., Sándor, R., Schönhart, M., ... Eory, V. (2019). To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers? Environmental Modelling and Software, 120, [104492]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492