To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Richard P Kipling, CFE Topp, André Bannink, Dave J Bartley, Isabel Blanco-Penedo, R Cortignani, Agustin del Prado, G Dono, Philippe Faverdin, I Graux, NJ Hutchings, Ludwig Lauwers, Şeyda Özkan Gulzari, P Reidsma, Susanne Rolinski, M Ruiz-Ramos, Daniel L Sandars, Renáta Sándor, M Schönhart, Giovanna SeddaiuJantine Van Middelkoop, S Shrestha, Isabelle Weindl, V Eory

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and
Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104492
Number of pages21
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume120
Early online date29 Jul 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPrint publication - Oct 2019

Fingerprint

Climate change
agricultural modeling
Triangulation
Risk assessment
Agriculture
modeling
climate change
triangulation
qualitative analysis
literature review
risk assessment
climate change adaptation
agriculture

Keywords

  • Adaptation
  • Agricultural modelling
  • Climate change
  • Research challenges

Cite this

Kipling, Richard P ; Topp, CFE ; Bannink, André ; Bartley, Dave J ; Blanco-Penedo, Isabel ; Cortignani, R ; del Prado, Agustin ; Dono, G ; Faverdin, Philippe ; Graux, I ; Hutchings, NJ ; Lauwers, Ludwig ; Gulzari, Şeyda Özkan ; Reidsma, P ; Rolinski, Susanne ; Ruiz-Ramos, M ; Sandars, Daniel L ; Sándor, Renáta ; Schönhart, M ; Seddaiu, Giovanna ; Van Middelkoop, Jantine ; Shrestha, S ; Weindl, Isabelle ; Eory, V. / To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?. In: Environmental Modelling and Software. 2019 ; Vol. 120.
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abstract = "Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling andClimate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.",
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Kipling, RP, Topp, CFE, Bannink, A, Bartley, DJ, Blanco-Penedo, I, Cortignani, R, del Prado, A, Dono, G, Faverdin, P, Graux, I, Hutchings, NJ, Lauwers, L, Gulzari, ŞÖ, Reidsma, P, Rolinski, S, Ruiz-Ramos, M, Sandars, DL, Sándor, R, Schönhart, M, Seddaiu, G, Van Middelkoop, J, Shrestha, S, Weindl, I & Eory, V 2019, 'To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 120, 104492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492

To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers? / Kipling, Richard P; Topp, CFE; Bannink, André ; Bartley, Dave J; Blanco-Penedo, Isabel; Cortignani, R; del Prado, Agustin; Dono, G; Faverdin, Philippe; Graux, I; Hutchings, NJ; Lauwers, Ludwig; Gulzari, Şeyda Özkan; Reidsma, P; Rolinski, Susanne; Ruiz-Ramos, M; Sandars, Daniel L; Sándor, Renáta; Schönhart, M; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Shrestha, S; Weindl, Isabelle; Eory, V.

In: Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 120, 104492, 10.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

AU - Kipling, Richard P

AU - Topp, CFE

AU - Bannink, André

AU - Bartley, Dave J

AU - Blanco-Penedo, Isabel

AU - Cortignani, R

AU - del Prado, Agustin

AU - Dono, G

AU - Faverdin, Philippe

AU - Graux, I

AU - Hutchings, NJ

AU - Lauwers, Ludwig

AU - Gulzari, Şeyda Özkan

AU - Reidsma, P

AU - Rolinski, Susanne

AU - Ruiz-Ramos, M

AU - Sandars, Daniel L

AU - Sándor, Renáta

AU - Schönhart, M

AU - Seddaiu, Giovanna

AU - Van Middelkoop, Jantine

AU - Shrestha, S

AU - Weindl, Isabelle

AU - Eory, V

PY - 2019/10

Y1 - 2019/10

N2 - Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling andClimate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

AB - Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling andClimate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

KW - Adaptation

KW - Agricultural modelling

KW - Climate change

KW - Research challenges

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492

DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492

M3 - Article

C2 - 31787839

VL - 120

JO - Environmental Modelling and Software

JF - Environmental Modelling and Software

SN - 1364-8152

M1 - 104492

ER -